Quotes

QuoteThere was also a 'perverse inverse relationship' between fame and accuracy. The more likely an expert was to have his or her predictions featured in op-ed pages and television, the more likely they were always wrong. Or, not always wrong. Rather, as Tetlock and his coauthors succinctly put it in their book "Superforecasting," roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.

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