Quotes

QuoteThe average expert was a horrific forecaster. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, advanced degrees, and even (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting, bad at long-term forecasting, and bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that some future event was impossible or nearly impossible, it occurred 15% of the time. A sure thing failed to transpire a quarter of the time.

Author - Abrahamson, Eric & David H. Freedman - A Perfect Mess: The Hidden Benefits of DisorderAdolphe, Bruce - Of Mozart, Parrots, Cherry Blossoms in the Wind: A Composer Explores Mysteries of the Musical MindBailin, Sharon - Achieving Extraordinary Ends: An Essay on CreativityBecker, Howard S. - Art WorldsBenjamin, Walter - The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical ReproductionBoden, Margaret A. - The Creative Mind: Myths and Mechanisms. 2nd Ed.Carey, Benedict - How We Learn: The Surprising Truth About When, Where, and Why It HappensCarl, Robert - Music Composition in the 21st Century: A Practical Guide for the New Common PracticeChristensen, Clayton M., Michael B. Horn, and Curtis W. Johnson - Disrupting Class, Expanded Edition: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World LearnsCollins, Dave, ed. - The Act of Musical Composition: Studies in the Creative ProcessCovey, Stephen R. - The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: 30th Anniversary EditionCoyle, Daniel - The Talent Code: Greatness Isn't Born. It's Grown. Here's How.Crawford, Matthew B. - The World Beyond Your Head: On Becoming an Individual in an Age of DistractionCrawford, Matthew B. - Shop Class as Soulcraft: An Inquiry into the Value of WorkCsikszentmihalyi, Mihaly - Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and InventionDewey, John - Art as ExperienceDuckworth, Angela - Grit: The Power of Passion and PerseveranceDweck, Carol S. - Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, Updated EditionEdwards, David - Creating Things That Matter: The Art and Science of Innovations That LastEpstein, David - Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized WorldFerry, Luc - A Brief History of Thought: A Philosophical Guide to LivingGardner, Howard - Creating Minds: An Anatomy of Creativity Seen Through the Lives of Freud, Einstein, Picasso, Stravinsky, Eliot, Graham, and GhandiGodin, Seth - Linchpin: Are You Indispensable?Godin, Seth - Purple Cow: Transform Your Business by Being RemarkableGreen, Lucy - Music, Informal Learning, and the School: A New Classroom PedagogyHastings, Reed & Erin Meyer - No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of ReinventionJourdain, Robert - Music, The Brain, And Ecstasy: How Music Captures Our ImaginationKahneman, Daniel - Thinking, Fast and SlowKaufman, Scott Barry & Carolyn Gregoire - Wired to Create: Unraveling the Mysteries of the Creative MindKing, Stephen - On Writing: A Memoir of the CraftKuhn, Thomas S. - The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 4th editionMay, Rollo - The Courage to CreateMcKeown, Greg - Effortless: Make It Easier to Do What Matters MostMcPhee, John - Draft No. 4: On the Writing ProcessMeyer, Leonard B. - Emotion and Meaning in MusicMontague, Read - Why Choose This Book? How We Make DecisionsNettl, Bruno - Heartland Excursions: Ethnomusicological Reflections on Schools of MusicOveracker, Marcus - QuotePirsig, Robert M. - Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into ValuesPressfield, Steven - The War of Art: Break Through the Blocks and Win Your Inner Creative BattlesPressfield, Steven - Do the Work: Overcome Resistance and Get Out of Your Own WayRabideau, Mark - Creating the Revolutionary Artist: Entrepreneurship for the 21st-Century MusicianSawyer, R. Keith - Explaining Creativity: The Science of Human InnovationSchon, Donald A. - The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think in ActionSchwarzenegger, Arnold - Be Useful: Seven Tools for LifeShapira, Haim - Notes on the Art of LifeTharp, Twyla - The Creative Habit: Learn It and Use It for LifeTough, Paul - How Children Succeed: Grit, Curiosity, and the Hidden Power of CharacterWilkinson, Amy - The Creator's Code: The Six Essential Skills of Extraordinary EntrepreneursZander, Rosamund Stone & Benjamin Zander - The Art of Possibility: Transforming Professional and Personal Life